Observing the epidemiological SIR model on COVID-19 pandemic data

Sergio Rojas

Abstract


This article shows that in the period January 22-June 04, 2020, the combined  data set of cumulative  recoveries and deaths from the current coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic falls on the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the epidemiological {\sir} contagious
disease model. Then, as an original contribution of this work, based on the knowledge of
the infectious period of any epidemic, a methodology is presented that helps to find numerical solutions of the full {\sir} model that falls on the observed data of the epidemic in case it could be described by the {\sir} model. The methodology is first illustrated by finding a solution of the {\sir} model that falls on the epidemic data of the Bombay plague of 1905-06 analyzed by Kermack and McKendrick. After that, the methodology is applied on analyzing the previously considered coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic data set. Moreover,  since the Kermack and McKendrick approximated solution of the {\sir} model comes from solving a Riccati type differential equation, commonly found when studying (in introductory physics courses) the vertical motion of objects on a resistive medium, enough details are given in the article so the epidemiological {\sir} model can be used as an additional example for enhancing and enriching the undergraduate curriculum Physics courses for Biology, Life Sciences, Medicine and/or Computational Modeling.

Keywords


Epidemiological SIR model, Computational Physics, Physics problem solving, computational modeling, Riccati differential equation

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31349/RevMexFisE.18.35

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REVISTA MEXICANA DE FÍSICA E, year 18, issue 1, January-June 2021. Semiannual Journal published by Sociedad Mexicana de Física, A. C. Departamento de Física, 2º Piso, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Alcaldía Coyacán, C.P. 04510 , Ciudad de México. Apartado Postal 70-348. Tel. (+52)55-5622-4946, https://rmf.smf.mx/ojs/rmf-e, rmf@ciencias.unam.mx. Chief Editor: José Alejandro Ayala Mercado.  INDAUTOR Certificate of Reserve: 04-2019-080216402500-203, ISSN: 2683-2216 (on line), 1870-3542 (print), both granted by Instituto Nacional del Derecho de Autor.  Responsible for the last update of this issue, Technical Staff of Sociedad Mexicana de Física, A. C., Fís. Efraín Garrido Román, 2º. Piso, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Alcaldía Coyacán, C.P. 04510 , Ciudad de México. Date of last modification, January 04, 2021.

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