Failure probabilities associated with failure regions containing the origin: application to corroded pressurized pipelines

J.L. Alamilla, J. Oliveros, J. García-Vargas, R. Pérez

Abstract


This work develops expressions to calculate failure probabilities associated with failure regions containing the expected value of random variables in the standard space (origin). These expressions are an extension based on the classical case that calculates failure probabilities associated with non-origin-containing failure regions. A simple form is established to know whether the failure region is origin- o non-origin-containing and to calculate the failure probability associated with the region in question. It is shown through an example of corroded pressurized pipelines that such an extension may be necessary to calculate failure probabilities in practical conditions. Reliability methods analyzed are FORM and directional simulation.

Keywords


Origin; reliability; failure probability; failure region; limit state function; failure pressure; corrosion

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Revista Mexicana de Física

ISSN: 2683-2224 (on line), 0035-001X (print)

Bimonthly publication of Sociedad Mexicana de Física, A.C.
Departamento de Física, 2o. Piso, Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM.
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